Iran, Hezbollah Coming to Assad’s Rescue?
Written by Worldthreats   
Friday, 04 February 2011


Syrian Opposition Leader Predicts Assad Won’t Last Another Year

The Reform Party of Syria has previously reported about the deployment of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps personnel alongside Syrian security forces ahead of the planned protests. Now this:

Syrians in Lebanon have witnessed small battalions of Hezbollah reach the Syrian-Lebanese borders awaiting further instructions. Combined with the IRGC fighters inside Syria already deployed, this will be a massacre if the White House and the international community do not openly support the people of Syria.

The Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera offices in Damascus were visited by Syrian Internal Security men who told them not to cover the events unfolding tomorrow and Saturday. They threatened with imprisonment any reporter who disobeys their instructions.


Farid Ghadry of the Reform Party of Syria predicts that Bashar Assad won’t remain in power another year. A bold prediction that I unfortunately think is far too optimistic. But he makes some important points.

Assad spends $81,588 per Israeli/per year to defend his rule with the average age of a Syrian tank standing at 48.7 year. For every $1 Israel spends to defend herself, Assad spends $2,720.

Ghadry says that Syria spends 35 percent of its GDP on defense, but that the average tank is nearly as old as Israel. While Ghadry makes a good point about the nature of the Syrian economy and government, I don’t see how this leads him to conclude that Assad only has a year left. The Syrian regime has been spending a huge amount of its GDP on defense for a long time and I’m not seeing any sign of imminent unrest or organized opposition inside the country that could result in the regime’s displacement. Unfortunately, I think we’re stuck with the Assad regime for awhile.