Exclusive: CRC Open-Source Intelligence Briefs
Written by W. Thomas Smith, Jr.   
Tuesday, 10 February 2009


Maj. W. Thomas Smith Jr., Director of the Counterterrorism Research Center

LEBANON:  Naharnet is reporting an apparent warning issued by the Lebanese Army to two Lebanese members of parliament (MPs) whom the Army claims may be targeted by terrorists.

According to the report: "attacks on MP Mustafa Alloush and the second legislator whose name was not revealed, could be carried out by extremists, including Fatah al-Islam, after the deadline for announcing candidacies for the June 7 parliamentary elections expires."

Our sources tell us, the unnamed parliamentarian may be Misbah Ahdab, and that Ahdab and Alloush would be the targets of Hizballah assassins (as opposed to Fatah al-Islam) because the two MPs are vocal critics of the Lebanon-based Shiia terrorist organization. Additionally, the Army - which has been heavily infiltrated by Hizballah (even establishing Hizballah as a legitimate wing of the national defense apparatus since Hizballah's successful albeit illegal war against the Lebanese government and citizenry in May 2008) - is now afraid to challenge Hizballah at any level. Thus, the potential targeting of the two parliamentarians is officially proclaimed to be the work of Sunni Fatah al-Islam, when in fact it may well-be either:

  • The work of Shia Hizballah with blame wrongly placed on Sunni Fatah al-Islam because the Lebanese Army Command is afraid to reveal the truth.
  • The work of Shia Hizballah using Sunni Fatah al-Islam as a proxy for their wet-work. And don't think for a moment that Shia and Sunni will not coordinate efforts when it suits their operational interests. Let's not forget that Shia Iran provides tremendous financial and operational support to Sunni Hamas.
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