TEL AVIV — The Israeli intelligence community has reported its conclusion that Iran has decided to maintain restraint until the departure of U.S. President George Bush and that its allies hope for the election of Sen. Barack Obama.
 
The intelligence community has assessed that Iran and Syria would continue preparations for war with Israel and the United States but would seek to maintain regional calm until the new administration takes office in January 2009.

"They are unlikely to begin a war with Israel while President Bush is still in office," Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin said.
 
In a briefing to the Israeli Cabinet on July 20, Yadlin said Iran and Syria could use their proxies, particularly Hamas and Hizbullah, to attack the Jewish state. But the military intelligence commander said the two Middle East states remain concerned that Bush might order a massive strike before he leaves office.

The Israeli intelligence assessment has determined that Damascus and Teheran believe that Bush's successor would either reject or suspend any U.S. plan to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons infrastructure. The assessment said Iran and its Middle East allies were rooting for the victory of Sen. Barack Obama.

Yadlin said Iran and Syria have not completed their rearmament effort. He said both countries were acquiring advanced Russian platforms and weapons and would need until at least 2009 to absorb them into their militaries.

Over the last year, Iran and Syria have been deploying a range of Russian air defense systems. Officials said they included the S-300 for Iran, the TOR-M1 and the Pantsyr-S1E.

Yadlin said the prisoner exchange with Israel in mid-July could encourage Hamas and Hizbullah to stage a provocation. He said Hizbullah could again try to abduct Israeli soldiers along the Lebanese border.

"We have intelligence indicating terror activities are possible both on the northern and southern fronts," Yadlin told the Cabinet. "Hizbullah may choose to use one of their still disputed subjects, such as the Shebaa Plateau or [Hizbullah operational chief] Imad Mugniyeh's assassination."

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